Stade du 26 Mars
Mali
3-1
Cape Verde
Mali – Cape Verde
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 07:46 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.26 – 0.96
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Mali 3-1 Cape Verde. The model predicted a win for Mali (47 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.26 goals for Mali and 0.96 for Cape Verde. Bookmakers say the same thing: 47 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Mali took 3 points and Cape Verde 6 points. Over 2.5 goals: 38 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mali | 1.95 | 47 % | -7.8 % |
| XDraw | 2.85 | 32 % | -25.2 % |
| 2Cape Verde | 4.20 | 22 % | +11.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Mali
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Cape Verde
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Mali – Cape Verde?
Final score: Mali 3-1 Cape Verde. The model predicted a win for Mali (47 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Mali – Cape Verde?
Our model gives 1 · Mali a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mali win 47 %, draw 26 %, Cape Verde win 26 %.