Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Mali
09:00 PM
Sep 25
Cape Verde
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mali | 1.95 | 47 % | -7.8 % |
| XDraw | 2.85 | 32 % | -25.2 % |
| 2Cape Verde | 4.20 | 22 % | +11.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Mali
Cape Verde
| Mali | Form and statistics | Cape Verde |
|---|---|---|
| 1611 | Elo | 1573 |
| 0.90 | Goals scored / match | 1.40 |
| 0.70 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 6.6 | Shots / match | 7.3 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 04:41 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Mali a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mali win 47 %, draw 26 %, Cape Verde win 26 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 38 %, and both teams scoring at 45 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.95 for Mali, 2.85 for the draw, 4.20 for Cape Verde.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (Africa Cup of Nations qualifying), at Stade du 26 Mars.
The model leans towards Mali at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.26 goals for Mali and 0.96 for Cape Verde. Bookmakers say the same thing: 47 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Mali took 3 points and Cape Verde 6 points. Over 2.5 goals: 38 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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