Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Algeria
09:00 PM
Sep 25
Zambia
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Algeria | 1.19 | 76 % | -10.7 % |
| XDraw | 5.50 | 17 % | -17.5 % |
| 2Zambia | 13.00 | 7 % | +29.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Algeria
Zambia
| Algeria | Form and statistics | Zambia |
|---|---|---|
| 1693 | Elo | 1459 |
| 1.80 | Goals scored / match | 0.40 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 1.90 |
| 10.2 | Shots / match | 3.0 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 0 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 04:41 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Algeria a 75 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Algeria win 75 %, draw 15 %, Zambia win 10 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 54 %, and both teams scoring at 45 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.19 for Algeria, 5.50 for the draw, 13.00 for Zambia.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (Africa Cup of Nations qualifying), at Hocine Aït Ahmed Stadium.
The model leans towards Algeria at home (75 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.13 goals for Algeria and 0.70 for Zambia. Bookmakers say the same thing: 76 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Algeria took 7 points and Zambia 2 points. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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