Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Türkiye
08:45 PM
Sep 25
France
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Türkiye | 7.00 | 13 % | +117.4 % |
| XDraw | 4.80 | 19 % | +8.5 % |
| 2France | 1.36 | 68 % | -37.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Türkiye
France
| Türkiye | Form and statistics | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1626 | Elo | 1717 |
| 1.90 | Goals scored / match | 2.40 |
| 0.90 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 17.6 | Shots / match | 18.1 |
| 70 % | Win rate | 70 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 04:41 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · France a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Türkiye win 31 %, draw 23 %, France win 46 %.
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 55 %, and both teams scoring at 58 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 7.00 for Türkiye, 4.80 for the draw, 1.36 for France.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Nations League), at Yildiz Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu.
The model leans towards France away from home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.29 goals for Türkiye and 1.61 for France. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 68 %. Over their last five matches, Türkiye took 9 points and France 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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