Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Sweden
08:45 PM
Sep 25
Romania
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sweden | 1.45 | 64 % | -23.5 % |
| XDraw | 4.50 | 21 % | -0.5 % |
| 2Romania | 6.00 | 15 % | +50.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Sweden
Romania
| Sweden | Form and statistics | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 1551 | Elo | 1546 |
| 1.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.60 |
| 2.30 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 10.6 | Shots / match | 10.3 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 04:41 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Sweden a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sweden win 53 %, draw 22 %, Romania win 25 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 56 %, and both teams scoring at 57 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.45 for Sweden, 4.50 for the draw, 6.00 for Romania.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Nations League), at Friends Arena.
The model leans towards Sweden at home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.80 goals for Sweden and 1.15 for Romania. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 64 %. Over their last five matches, Sweden took 5 points and Romania 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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