Poland
08:45 PM
Sep 25
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Poland – Bosnia-Herzegovina
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 04:41 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.59 – 1.09
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Poland at home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.59 goals for Poland and 1.09 for Bosnia-Herzegovina. Bookmakers say the same thing: 56 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Poland took 7 points and Bosnia-Herzegovina 5 points. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Poland | 1.64 | 56 % | -12.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | -15.3 % |
| 2Bosnia-Herzegovina | 4.80 | 19 % | +16.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Poland
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bosnia-Herzegovina
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Poland | Form and statistics | Bosnia-Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|
| 1535 | Elo | 1484 |
| 1.70 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 11.0 | Shots / match | 10.5 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Poland – Bosnia-Herzegovina?
Our model gives 1 · Poland a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Poland win 53 %, draw 23 %, Bosnia-Herzegovina win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Poland – Bosnia-Herzegovina?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
