Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Montenegro
08:45 PM
Sep 25
Cyprus
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Montenegro | 1.71 | 54 % | -15.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 25 % | -14.5 % |
| 2Cyprus | 4.50 | 21 % | +22.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Montenegro
Cyprus
| Montenegro | Form and statistics | Cyprus |
|---|---|---|
| 1444 | Elo | 1393 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.60 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 8.6 | Shots / match | 8.8 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 04:41 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Montenegro a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Montenegro win 49 %, draw 23 %, Cyprus win 27 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 52 %, and both teams scoring at 54 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.71 for Montenegro, 3.65 for the draw, 4.50 for Cyprus.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Nations League), at Podgorica City Stadium.
The model leans towards Montenegro at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.61 goals for Montenegro and 1.13 for Cyprus. Bookmakers say the same thing: 54 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Montenegro took 7 points and Cyprus 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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