Italy
0-2
Belgium
Italy – Belgium
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 07:46 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.33 – 1.71
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Italy 0-2 Belgium. The model predicted a win for Belgium (45 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.33 goals for Italy and 1.71 for Belgium. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 30 %. Over their last five matches, Italy took 10 points and Belgium 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Italy, 1 draw, 0 wins for Belgium. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Italy | 2.15 | 43 % | -30.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -22.9 % |
| 2Belgium | 3.05 | 30 % | +38.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Italy
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Belgium
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Italy
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Belgium
- Belgium0-1Italy
- Italy2-2Belgium
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Italy – Belgium?
Final score: Italy 0-2 Belgium. The model predicted a win for Belgium (45 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Italy – Belgium?
Our model gives 2 · Belgium a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Italy win 32 %, draw 22 %, Belgium win 45 %.