Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Girona
08:30 PM
Sep 25
Albacete
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Girona | 1.54 | 61 % | -3.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 21 % | -2.5 % |
| 2Albacete | 5.50 | 17 % | -15.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Girona
Albacete
| Girona | Form and statistics | Albacete |
|---|---|---|
| 1578 | Elo | 1492 |
| 1.50 | Goals scored / match | 1.10 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 16.0 | Shots / match | 12.3 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 7 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 04:41 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Girona a 62 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Girona win 62 %, draw 22 %, Albacete win 15 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 52 %, and both teams scoring at 49 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.54 for Girona, 4.40 for the draw, 5.50 for Albacete.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:30 PM (LaLiga 2), at Estadi Montilivi.
The model leans towards Girona at home (62 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.92 goals for Girona and 0.84 for Albacete. Bookmakers say the same thing: 61 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Girona took 9 points and Albacete 1 point. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
Nobody has voted yet. Be the first.
