Stade de Kégué
Togo
1-0
Burundi
Togo – Burundi
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 07:46 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.38 – 0.90
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Togo 1-0 Burundi. The model predicted a win for Togo (51 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.38 goals for Togo and 0.90 for Burundi. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 58 %. Over their last five matches, Togo took 8 points and Burundi 6 points. Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Togo | 1.57 | 58 % | -20.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 26 % | -11.5 % |
| 2Burundi | 6.00 | 15 % | +44.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Togo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Burundi
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Togo – Burundi?
Final score: Togo 1-0 Burundi. The model predicted a win for Togo (51 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Togo – Burundi?
Our model gives 1 · Togo a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Togo win 51 %, draw 25 %, Burundi win 24 %.