Juba National Stadium
Sudan
1-0
Ethiopia
Sudan – Ethiopia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 07:46 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.32 – 0.87
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Sudan 1-0 Ethiopia. The model predicted a win for Sudan (49 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.32 goals for Sudan and 0.87 for Ethiopia. Bookmakers say the same thing: 51 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Sudan took 3 points and Ethiopia 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 37 %. Both teams to score: 43 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sudan | 1.80 | 51 % | -11.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.25 | 28 % | -16.8 % |
| 2Ethiopia | 4.60 | 20 % | +16.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Sudan
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Ethiopia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Sudan – Ethiopia?
Final score: Sudan 1-0 Ethiopia. The model predicted a win for Sudan (49 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Sudan – Ethiopia?
Our model gives 1 · Sudan a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sudan win 49 %, draw 26 %, Ethiopia win 25 %.