Stade Amahoro
Rwanda
3-1
Liberia
Rwanda – Liberia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 07:46 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.30 – 0.92
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Rwanda 3-1 Liberia. The model predicted a win for Rwanda (48 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.30 goals for Rwanda and 0.92 for Liberia. Bookmakers say the same thing: 53 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Rwanda took 9 points and Liberia 5 points. Over 2.5 goals: 38 %. Both teams to score: 44 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rwanda | 1.74 | 53 % | -16.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 26 % | -8.7 % |
| 2Liberia | 4.40 | 21 % | +13.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Rwanda
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Liberia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Rwanda – Liberia?
Final score: Rwanda 3-1 Liberia. The model predicted a win for Rwanda (48 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Rwanda – Liberia?
Our model gives 1 · Rwanda a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Rwanda win 48 %, draw 26 %, Liberia win 26 %.