Godswill Akpabio International Stadium
Nigeria
2-1
Madagascar
Nigeria – Madagascar
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 07:46 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 71 %
- Most likely score
- 2-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.00 – 0.75
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Nigeria 2-1 Madagascar. The model predicted a win for Nigeria (71 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.00 goals for Nigeria and 0.75 for Madagascar. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 78 %. Over their last five matches, Nigeria took 8 points and Madagascar 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nigeria | 1.18 | 78 % | -16.7 % |
| XDraw | 6.00 | 15 % | +8.0 % |
| 2Madagascar | 14.00 | 7 % | +59.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Nigeria
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Madagascar
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Nigeria – Madagascar?
Final score: Nigeria 2-1 Madagascar. The model predicted a win for Nigeria (71 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Nigeria – Madagascar?
Our model gives 1 · Nigeria a 71 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Nigeria win 71 %, draw 18 %, Madagascar win 11 %.