Bingu National Stadium
Malawi
2-1
South Sudan
Malawi – South Sudan
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 07:46 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.29 – 0.90
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Malawi 2-1 South Sudan. The model predicted a win for Malawi (48 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.29 goals for Malawi and 0.90 for South Sudan. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 57 %. Over their last five matches, Malawi took 6 points and South Sudan 5 points. Over 2.5 goals: 37 %. Both teams to score: 43 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Malawi | 1.62 | 57 % | -22.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -4.1 % |
| 2South Sudan | 5.50 | 17 % | +35.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Malawi
- Last 5 matches
- At home
South Sudan
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Malawi – South Sudan?
Final score: Malawi 2-1 South Sudan. The model predicted a win for Malawi (48 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Malawi – South Sudan?
Our model gives 1 · Malawi a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Malawi win 48 %, draw 28 %, South Sudan win 25 %.