Independence Stadium
Gambia
2-1
Somalia
Gambia – Somalia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 07:46 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 64 %
- Most likely score
- 1-015 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.67 – 0.75
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Gambia 2-1 Somalia. The model predicted a win for Gambia (64 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.67 goals for Gambia and 0.75 for Somalia. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 83 %. Over their last five matches, Gambia took 7 points and Somalia 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 43 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gambia | 1.11 | 83 % | -29.4 % |
| XDraw | 7.50 | 12 % | +54.3 % |
| 2Somalia | 19.00 | 5 % | +201.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Gambia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Somalia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Gambia – Somalia?
Final score: Gambia 2-1 Somalia. The model predicted a win for Gambia (64 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Gambia – Somalia?
Our model gives 1 · Gambia a 64 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Gambia win 64 %, draw 21 %, Somalia win 16 %.