Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
India
04:00 PM
Sep 25
Panama
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1India | 8.50 | 11 % | +163.5 % |
| XDraw | 4.90 | 19 % | +28.3 % |
| 2Panama | 1.36 | 70 % | -41.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
India
Panama
| India | Form and statistics | Panama |
|---|---|---|
| 1439 | Elo | 1567 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.10 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 1.70 |
| 7.2 | Shots / match | 6.3 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 04:41 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Panama a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: India win 31 %, draw 26 %, Panama win 43 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 44 %, and both teams scoring at 49 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 8.50 for India, 4.90 for the draw, 1.36 for Panama.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (International friendlies), at Sree Kanteerava Stadium.
The model leans towards Panama away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.08 goals for India and 1.35 for Panama. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 70 %. Over their last five matches, India took 6 points and Panama 4 points. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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