Estádio do Zimpeto
Mozambique
1-1
Senegal
Mozambique – Senegal
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 25, 07:46 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 63 %
- Most likely score
- 0-112 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.86 – 1.93
The short version
Final score: Mozambique 1-1 Senegal. The model predicted a win for Senegal (63 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.86 goals for Mozambique and 1.93 for Senegal. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 72 %. Over their last five matches, Mozambique took 3 points and Senegal 4 points. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mozambique | 9.50 | 10 % | +61.3 % |
| XDraw | 5.00 | 18 % | -1.2 % |
| 2Senegal | 1.28 | 72 % | -19.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Mozambique
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Senegal
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Mozambique – Senegal?
Final score: Mozambique 1-1 Senegal. The model predicted a win for Senegal (63 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Mozambique – Senegal?
Our model gives 2 · Senegal a 63 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mozambique win 17 %, draw 20 %, Senegal win 63 %.