Stade Olympique de Radès
Tunisia
1-1
Uganda
Tunisia – Uganda
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 24, 07:47 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 56 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.55 – 0.94
The short version
Final score: Tunisia 1-1 Uganda. The model predicted a win for Tunisia (56 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.55 goals for Tunisia and 0.94 for Uganda. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 64 %. Over their last five matches, Tunisia took no points and Uganda 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Tunisia, 0 draws, 0 wins for Uganda. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tunisia | 1.41 | 64 % | -21.1 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 23 % | -11.6 % |
| 2Uganda | 7.00 | 13 % | +53.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Tunisia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Uganda
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Tunisia
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Uganda
- Tunisia3-1Uganda
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Tunisia – Uganda?
Final score: Tunisia 1-1 Uganda. The model predicted a win for Tunisia (56 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Tunisia – Uganda?
Our model gives 1 · Tunisia a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Tunisia win 56 %, draw 22 %, Uganda win 22 %.