Predictions are closed for this match.
Tunisia
09:00 PM
Sep 24
Uganda
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tunisia | 1.41 | 64 % | -21.1 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 23 % | -11.6 % |
| 2Uganda | 7.00 | 13 % | +53.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Tunisia
Uganda
| Tunisia | Form and statistics | Uganda |
|---|---|---|
| 1553 | Elo | 1501 |
| 0.70 | Goals scored / match | 1.50 |
| 2.30 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 8.1 | Shots / match | 5.4 |
| 10 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 24, 07:47 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Tunisia a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Tunisia win 56 %, draw 22 %, Uganda win 22 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 45 %, and both teams scoring at 48 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.41 for Tunisia, 4.00 for the draw, 7.00 for Uganda.
Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 09:00 PM (Africa Cup of Nations qualifying), at Stade Olympique de Radès.
The model leans towards Tunisia at home (56 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.55 goals for Tunisia and 0.94 for Uganda. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 64 %. Over their last five matches, Tunisia took no points and Uganda 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Tunisia, 0 draws, 0 wins for Uganda. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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