Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi
Sierra Leone
2-3
Zimbabwe
Sierra Leone – Zimbabwe
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 24, 07:47 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.14 – 1.03
The short version
Final score: Sierra Leone 2-3 Zimbabwe. The model predicted a win for Sierra Leone (40 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.14 goals for Sierra Leone and 1.03 for Zimbabwe. Bookmakers say the same thing: 35 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Sierra Leone took 7 points and Zimbabwe 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 37 %. Both teams to score: 44 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sierra Leone | 2.60 | 35 % | +3.9 % |
| XDraw | 2.70 | 34 % | -26.2 % |
| 2Zimbabwe | 2.90 | 31 % | -5.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Sierra Leone
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Zimbabwe
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Sierra Leone – Zimbabwe?
Final score: Sierra Leone 2-3 Zimbabwe. The model predicted a win for Sierra Leone (40 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Sierra Leone – Zimbabwe?
Our model gives 1 · Sierra Leone a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sierra Leone win 40 %, draw 27 %, Zimbabwe win 33 %.