Predictions are closed for this match.
Ivory Coast
09:00 PM
Sep 24
Ghana
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ivory Coast | 1.55 | 58 % | -0.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 26 % | -27.6 % |
| 2Ghana | 5.75 | 16 % | -12.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Ivory Coast
Ghana
| Ivory Coast | Form and statistics | Ghana |
|---|---|---|
| 1681 | Elo | 1528 |
| 2.00 | Goals scored / match | 0.50 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.60 |
| 13.2 | Shots / match | 7.1 |
| 70 % | Win rate | 10 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 24, 07:47 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Ivory Coast a 64 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ivory Coast win 64 %, draw 21 %, Ghana win 15 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 45 %, and both teams scoring at 45 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.55 for Ivory Coast, 3.50 for the draw, 5.75 for Ghana.
Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 09:00 PM (Africa Cup of Nations qualifying), at Stade de Bouaké.
The model leans towards Ivory Coast at home (64 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.70 goals for Ivory Coast and 0.78 for Ghana. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 58 %. Over their last five matches, Ivory Coast took 9 points and Ghana 5 points. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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