Predictions are closed for this match.
Portugal
08:45 PM
Sep 24
Wales
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portugal | 1.18 | 78 % | -17.5 % |
| XDraw | 6.00 | 15 % | +6.0 % |
| 2Wales | 13.00 | 7 % | +61.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Portugal
Wales
| Portugal | Form and statistics | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1687 | Elo | 1526 |
| 2.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.50 |
| 0.60 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 14.8 | Shots / match | 14.6 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 24, 07:47 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Portugal a 70 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Portugal win 70 %, draw 18 %, Wales win 12 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 58 %, and both teams scoring at 53 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.18 for Portugal, 6.00 for the draw, 13.00 for Wales.
Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Nations League), at Estádio José Alvalade.
The model leans towards Portugal at home (70 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.12 goals for Portugal and 0.91 for Wales. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 78 %. Over their last five matches, Portugal took 8 points and Wales 6 points. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
Nobody has voted yet. Be the first.
