Portugal
1-0
Wales
Portugal – Wales
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 24, 07:47 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 70 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.12 – 0.91
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Portugal 1-0 Wales. The model predicted a win for Portugal (70 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.12 goals for Portugal and 0.91 for Wales. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 78 %. Over their last five matches, Portugal took 8 points and Wales 6 points. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portugal | 1.18 | 78 % | -17.5 % |
| XDraw | 6.00 | 15 % | +6.0 % |
| 2Wales | 13.00 | 7 % | +61.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Portugal
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Wales
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Portugal – Wales?
Final score: Portugal 1-0 Wales. The model predicted a win for Portugal (70 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Portugal – Wales?
Our model gives 1 · Portugal a 70 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Portugal win 70 %, draw 18 %, Wales win 12 %.