Predictions are closed for this match.
Norway
08:45 PM
Sep 24
Denmark
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Norway | 1.71 | 54 % | -9.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.90 | 24 % | -19.4 % |
| 2Denmark | 4.10 | 22 % | +9.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Norway
Denmark
| Norway | Form and statistics | Denmark |
|---|---|---|
| 1683 | Elo | 1621 |
| 1.80 | Goals scored / match | 2.40 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.00 |
| 10.7 | Shots / match | 18.4 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 24, 07:47 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Norway a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Norway win 53 %, draw 21 %, Denmark win 27 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 60 %, and both teams scoring at 61 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.71 for Norway, 3.90 for the draw, 4.10 for Denmark.
Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Nations League), at Ullevaal Stadion.
The model leans towards Norway at home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.78 goals for Norway and 1.32 for Denmark. Bookmakers say the same thing: 54 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Norway took 9 points and Denmark 8 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Norway, 0 draws, 1 win for Denmark. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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