Predictions are closed for this match.
Netherlands
08:45 PM
Sep 24
Germany
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Netherlands | 2.35 | 39 % | +7.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -20.2 % |
| 2Germany | 2.65 | 35 % | -15.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Netherlands
Germany
| Netherlands | Form and statistics | Germany |
|---|---|---|
| 1666 | Elo | 1656 |
| 2.10 | Goals scored / match | 3.10 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.00 |
| 12.2 | Shots / match | 18.9 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 80 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 24, 07:47 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Netherlands a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Netherlands win 46 %, draw 22 %, Germany win 32 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 58 %, and both teams scoring at 61 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.35 for Netherlands, 3.60 for the draw, 2.65 for Germany.
Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Nations League), at Johan Cruijff Arena.
The model leans towards Netherlands at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.59 goals for Netherlands and 1.45 for Germany. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 39 %. Over their last five matches, Netherlands took 11 points and Germany 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Netherlands, 1 draw, 2 wins for Germany. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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