Netherlands
1-1
Germany
Netherlands – Germany
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 24, 07:47 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.59 – 1.45
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Netherlands 1-1 Germany. The model predicted a win for Netherlands (46 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.59 goals for Netherlands and 1.45 for Germany. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 39 %. Over their last five matches, Netherlands took 11 points and Germany 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Netherlands, 1 draw, 2 wins for Germany. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Netherlands | 2.35 | 39 % | +7.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -20.2 % |
| 2Germany | 2.65 | 35 % | -15.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Netherlands
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Germany
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Netherlands
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Germany
- Germany1-0Netherlands
- Netherlands2-2Germany
- Germany2-1Netherlands
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Netherlands – Germany?
Final score: Netherlands 1-1 Germany. The model predicted a win for Netherlands (46 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Netherlands – Germany?
Our model gives 1 · Netherlands a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Netherlands win 46 %, draw 22 %, Germany win 32 %.