Predictions are closed for this match.
Uzbekistan
04:00 PM
Sep 24
Iran
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Uzbekistan | 3.00 | 31 % | +9.0 % |
| XDraw | 2.85 | 33 % | -26.5 % |
| 2Iran | 2.65 | 36 % | +0.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Uzbekistan
Iran
| Uzbekistan | Form and statistics | Iran |
|---|---|---|
| 1588 | Elo | 1676 |
| 1.00 | Goals scored / match | 1.30 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded / match | 0.50 |
| 6.4 | Shots / match | 3.7 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 24, 07:47 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Iran a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Uzbekistan win 36 %, draw 26 %, Iran win 38 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 45 %, and both teams scoring at 51 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 3.00 for Uzbekistan, 2.85 for the draw, 2.65 for Iran.
Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (International friendlies), at Istiqlol Stadium.
The model leans towards Iran away from home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.24 goals for Uzbekistan and 1.23 for Iran. Bookmakers say the same thing: 36 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Uzbekistan took no points and Iran 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Uzbekistan, 5 draws, 0 wins for Iran. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
Nobody has voted yet. Be the first.
