Japan
3-1
Uruguay
Japan – Uruguay
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 24, 07:47 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 56 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.63 – 0.99
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Japan 3-1 Uruguay. The model predicted a win for Japan (56 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.63 goals for Japan and 0.99 for Uruguay. Bookmakers say the same thing: 56 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Japan took 8 points and Uruguay 4 points. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Japan | 1.71 | 56 % | -3.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 25 % | -11.8 % |
| 2Uruguay | 4.80 | 20 % | +0.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Japan
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Uruguay
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Japan – Uruguay?
Final score: Japan 3-1 Uruguay. The model predicted a win for Japan (56 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Japan – Uruguay?
Our model gives 1 · Japan a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Japan win 56 %, draw 23 %, Uruguay win 21 %.