Predictions are closed for this match.
Japan
12:05 PM
Sep 24
Uruguay
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Japan | 1.71 | 56 % | -3.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 25 % | -11.8 % |
| 2Uruguay | 4.80 | 20 % | +0.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Japan
Uruguay
| Japan | Form and statistics | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 1726 | Elo | 1584 |
| 1.90 | Goals scored / match | 0.80 |
| 0.70 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 8.8 | Shots / match | 11.1 |
| 70 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 24, 07:47 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Japan a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Japan win 56 %, draw 23 %, Uruguay win 21 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 49 %, and both teams scoring at 51 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.71 for Japan, 3.85 for the draw, 4.80 for Uruguay.
Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 12:05 PM (International friendlies), at Miyagi Stadium.
The model leans towards Japan at home (56 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.63 goals for Japan and 0.99 for Uruguay. Bookmakers say the same thing: 56 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Japan took 8 points and Uruguay 4 points. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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