Papua New Guinea
09:00 AM
Sep 24
New Caledonia
Papua New Guinea – New Caledonia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 24, 07:47 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.43 – 1.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Papua New Guinea at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.43 goals for Papua New Guinea and 1.06 for New Caledonia. No odds are available for this match, so there is nothing to compare the model against. Over their last five matches, Papua New Guinea took 7 points and New Caledonia 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Papua New Guinea, 0 draws, 1 win for New Caledonia. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
No odds available for this match.
Form and statistics
Papua New Guinea
- Last 5 matches
- At home
New Caledonia
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Papua New Guinea | Form and statistics | New Caledonia |
|---|---|---|
| 1443 | Elo | 1509 |
| 0.78 | Goals scored / match | 1.80 |
| 2.67 | Goals conceded / match | 0.80 |
| 0.0 | Shots / match | 0.0 |
| 22 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Papua New Guinea
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- New Caledonia
- Papua New Guinea1-3New Caledonia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Papua New Guinea – New Caledonia?
Our model gives 1 · Papua New Guinea a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Papua New Guinea win 42 %, draw 24 %, New Caledonia win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Papua New Guinea – New Caledonia?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
