Azerbaijan
1-0
Tajikistan
Azerbaijan – Tajikistan
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 23, 08:07 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.07 – 1.51
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Azerbaijan 1-0 Tajikistan. The model predicted a win for Tajikistan (49 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.07 goals for Azerbaijan and 1.51 for Tajikistan. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 21 %. Over their last five matches, Azerbaijan took 7 points and Tajikistan 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Azerbaijan | 1.83 | 51 % | -49.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -19.8 % |
| 2Tajikistan | 4.40 | 21 % | +115.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Azerbaijan
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Tajikistan
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Azerbaijan – Tajikistan?
Final score: Azerbaijan 1-0 Tajikistan. The model predicted a win for Tajikistan (49 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Azerbaijan – Tajikistan?
Our model gives 2 · Tajikistan a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Azerbaijan win 28 %, draw 23 %, Tajikistan win 49 %.