Predictions are closed for this match.
Azerbaijan
06:00 PM
Sep 23
Tajikistan
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Azerbaijan | 1.83 | 51 % | -49.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -19.8 % |
| 2Tajikistan | 4.40 | 21 % | +115.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Azerbaijan
Tajikistan
| Azerbaijan | Form and statistics | Tajikistan |
|---|---|---|
| 1365 | Elo | 1509 |
| 1.20 | Goals scored / match | 1.30 |
| 2.10 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 3.0 | Shots / match | 7.6 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 23, 08:07 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Tajikistan a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Azerbaijan win 28 %, draw 23 %, Tajikistan win 49 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 48 %, and both teams scoring at 52 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.83 for Azerbaijan, 3.45 for the draw, 4.40 for Tajikistan.
Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 06:00 PM (International friendlies), at Neftçi Arena.
The model leans towards Tajikistan away from home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.07 goals for Azerbaijan and 1.51 for Tajikistan. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 21 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 4.40, the predicted outcome carries +115.1 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Azerbaijan took 7 points and Tajikistan 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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