Predictions are closed for this match.
Fiji
09:00 AM
Sep 21
Vanuatu
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fiji | 1.90 | 50 % | +8.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 25 % | -18.3 % |
| 2Vanuatu | 3.70 | 26 % | -20.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Fiji
Vanuatu
| Fiji | Form and statistics | Vanuatu |
|---|---|---|
| 1522 | Elo | 1460 |
| 1.63 | Goals scored / match | 0.88 |
| 1.25 | Goals conceded / match | 2.25 |
| 0.0 | Shots / match | 0.0 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 25 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 3 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:56 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Fiji a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fiji win 57 %, draw 21 %, Vanuatu win 22 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 51 %, and both teams scoring at 51 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.90 for Fiji, 3.85 for the draw, 3.70 for Vanuatu.
Kick-off is scheduled for Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:00 AM (International friendlies), at HFC Bank Stadium.
The model leans towards Fiji at home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.80 goals for Fiji and 0.92 for Vanuatu. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 50 %. Over their last five matches, Fiji took 8 points and Vanuatu 3 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Fiji, 0 draws, 1 win for Vanuatu. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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