Predictions are closed for this match.
FC Porto
09:30 PM
Sep 20
Benfica
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Porto | 2.77 | 34 % | -15.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | -15.7 % |
| 2Benfica | 2.52 | 37 % | +8.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
FC Porto
Benfica
| FC Porto | Form and statistics | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| 1829 | Elo | 1866 |
| 1.80 | Goals scored / match | 3.00 |
| 0.70 | Goals conceded / match | 0.70 |
| 14.4 | Shots / match | 20.0 |
| 80 % | Win rate | 80 % |
| 8 | Rest days | 4 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Benfica a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Porto win 31 %, draw 26 %, Benfica win 43 %.
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 62 %, and both teams scoring at 63 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.77 for FC Porto, 3.20 for the draw, 2.52 for Benfica.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 09:30 PM (Primeira Liga), at Estádio do Dragão.
The model leans towards Benfica away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.44 goals for FC Porto and 1.73 for Benfica. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 37 %. Over their last five matches, FC Porto took 12 points and Benfica 15 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for FC Porto, 2 draws, 2 wins for Benfica. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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