FC Porto
3-1
Benfica
FC Porto – Benfica
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.44 – 1.73
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: FC Porto 3-1 Benfica. The model predicted a win for Benfica (43 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.44 goals for FC Porto and 1.73 for Benfica. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 37 %. Over their last five matches, FC Porto took 12 points and Benfica 15 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for FC Porto, 2 draws, 2 wins for Benfica. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Porto | 2.77 | 34 % | -15.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | -15.7 % |
| 2Benfica | 2.52 | 37 % | +8.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
FC Porto
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Benfica
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- FC Porto
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Benfica
- Benfica2-2FC Porto
- FC Porto1-0Benfica
- FC Porto0-0Benfica
- FC Porto1-4Benfica
- Benfica4-1FC Porto
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of FC Porto – Benfica?
Final score: FC Porto 3-1 Benfica. The model predicted a win for Benfica (43 %): missed prediction.
Who will win FC Porto – Benfica?
Our model gives 2 · Benfica a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Porto win 31 %, draw 26 %, Benfica win 43 %.