Valencia
2-3
Real Sociedad
Valencia – Real Sociedad
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.34 – 1.21
The short version
Final score: Valencia 2-3 Real Sociedad. The model predicted a win for Valencia (39 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.34 goals for Valencia and 1.21 for Real Sociedad. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 32 %. Over their last five matches, Valencia took 3 points and Real Sociedad 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Valencia, 1 draw, 2 wins for Real Sociedad. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Valencia | 2.95 | 32 % | +16.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 29 % | -2.1 % |
| 2Real Sociedad | 2.45 | 39 % | -23.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Valencia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Real Sociedad
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Valencia
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad3-4Valencia
- Valencia1-1Real Sociedad
- Valencia1-0Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad3-0Valencia
- Real Sociedad1-0Valencia
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Valencia – Real Sociedad?
Final score: Valencia 2-3 Real Sociedad. The model predicted a win for Valencia (39 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Valencia – Real Sociedad?
Our model gives 1 · Valencia a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Valencia win 39 %, draw 29 %, Real Sociedad win 31 %.