Marseille
1-2
Paris Saint-Germain
Marseille – Paris Saint-Germain
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 59 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.12 – 2.03
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Marseille 1-2 Paris Saint-Germain. The model predicted a win for Paris Saint-Germain (59 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.12 goals for Marseille and 2.03 for Paris Saint-Germain. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 67 %. Over their last five matches, Marseille took 3 points and Paris Saint-Germain 8 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Marseille, 0 draws, 4 wins for Paris Saint-Germain. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Marseille | 6.75 | 14 % | +35.2 % |
| XDraw | 5.13 | 19 % | +9.5 % |
| 2Paris Saint-Germain | 1.41 | 67 % | -17.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Marseille
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Paris Saint-Germain
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Marseille
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- Paris Saint-Germain
- Paris Saint-Germain5-0Marseille
- Marseille1-0Paris Saint-Germain
- Paris Saint-Germain3-1Marseille
- Marseille0-3Paris Saint-Germain
- Marseille0-2Paris Saint-Germain
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Marseille – Paris Saint-Germain?
Final score: Marseille 1-2 Paris Saint-Germain. The model predicted a win for Paris Saint-Germain (59 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Marseille – Paris Saint-Germain?
Our model gives 2 · Paris Saint-Germain a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Marseille win 20 %, draw 21 %, Paris Saint-Germain win 59 %.