Marseille
08:45 PM
Sep 20
Paris Saint-Germain
Marseille – Paris Saint-Germain
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.12 – 2.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Paris Saint-Germain away from home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.12 goals for Marseille and 2.03 for Paris Saint-Germain. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 67 %. Over their last five matches, Marseille took 3 points and Paris Saint-Germain 8 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Marseille, 0 draws, 4 wins for Paris Saint-Germain. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Marseille | 6.75 | 14 % | +35.2 % |
| XDraw | 5.13 | 19 % | +9.5 % |
| 2Paris Saint-Germain | 1.41 | 67 % | -17.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Marseille
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Paris Saint-Germain
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Marseille | Form and statistics | Paris Saint-Germain |
|---|---|---|
| 1642 | Elo | 1891 |
| 1.20 | Goals scored / match | 1.90 |
| 1.70 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 15.9 | Shots / match | 18.5 |
| 30 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Marseille
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- Paris Saint-Germain
- Paris Saint-Germain5-0Marseille
- Marseille1-0Paris Saint-Germain
- Paris Saint-Germain3-1Marseille
- Marseille0-3Paris Saint-Germain
- Marseille0-2Paris Saint-Germain
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Marseille – Paris Saint-Germain?
Our model gives 2 · Paris Saint-Germain a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Marseille win 20 %, draw 21 %, Paris Saint-Germain win 59 %.
What is the most likely score for Marseille – Paris Saint-Germain?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
