Predictions are closed for this match.
AC Milan
08:45 PM
Sep 20
Lecce
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AC Milan | 1.22 | 76 % | -15.8 % |
| XDraw | 5.88 | 16 % | +15.5 % |
| 2Lecce | 12.00 | 8 % | +32.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
AC Milan
Lecce
| AC Milan | Form and statistics | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| 1701 | Elo | 1496 |
| 1.20 | Goals scored / match | 1.10 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 13.0 | Shots / match | 10.1 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · AC Milan a 69 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AC Milan win 69 %, draw 20 %, Lecce win 11 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 49 %, and both teams scoring at 45 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.22 for AC Milan, 5.88 for the draw, 12.00 for Lecce.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Serie A), at San Siro.
The model leans towards AC Milan at home (69 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.88 goals for AC Milan and 0.74 for Lecce. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 76 %. Over their last five matches, AC Milan took 8 points and Lecce 6 points. In recent meetings: 5 wins for AC Milan, 0 draws, 0 wins for Lecce. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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