Predictions are closed for this match.
Santa Clara
07:00 PM
Sep 20
Braga
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Santa Clara | 3.48 | 27 % | +43.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 30 % | -11.7 % |
| 2Braga | 2.20 | 43 % | -33.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Santa Clara
Braga
| Santa Clara | Form and statistics | Braga |
|---|---|---|
| 1578 | Elo | 1724 |
| 1.70 | Goals scored / match | 1.40 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded / match | 0.50 |
| 13.0 | Shots / match | 9.0 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 7 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Santa Clara a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Santa Clara win 41 %, draw 28 %, Braga win 30 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 46 %, and both teams scoring at 51 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 3.48 for Santa Clara, 3.10 for the draw, 2.20 for Braga.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 07:00 PM (Primeira Liga), at Estádio de São Miguel.
The model leans towards Santa Clara at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.42 goals for Santa Clara and 1.11 for Braga. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 27 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 3.48, the predicted outcome carries +43.1 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Santa Clara took 13 points and Braga 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Santa Clara, 1 draw, 3 wins for Braga. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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