Estoril
1-2
Casa Pia
Estoril – Casa Pia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 53 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.60 – 0.86
The short version
Final score: Estoril 1-2 Casa Pia. The model predicted a win for Estoril (53 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.60 goals for Estoril and 0.86 for Casa Pia. Bookmakers say the same thing: 56 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Estoril took 1 point and Casa Pia 1 point. In recent meetings: 1 win for Estoril, 3 draws, 1 win for Casa Pia. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estoril | 1.69 | 56 % | -10.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | -3.8 % |
| 2Casa Pia | 4.72 | 20 % | +3.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Estoril
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Casa Pia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Estoril
- 3 draws
- 1 win
- Casa Pia
- Estoril0-0Casa Pia
- Casa Pia2-2Estoril
- Casa Pia1-3Estoril
- Estoril0-2Casa Pia
- Casa Pia0-0Estoril
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Estoril – Casa Pia?
Final score: Estoril 1-2 Casa Pia. The model predicted a win for Estoril (53 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Estoril – Casa Pia?
Our model gives 1 · Estoril a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Estoril win 53 %, draw 25 %, Casa Pia win 22 %.