Predictions are closed for this match.
Las Palmas
06:30 PM
Sep 20
Burgos
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Las Palmas | 1.95 | 48 % | -10.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 29 % | -5.6 % |
| 2Burgos | 4.10 | 23 % | +3.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Las Palmas
Burgos
| Las Palmas | Form and statistics | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| 1569 | Elo | 1581 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 0.60 |
| 10.4 | Shots / match | 11.0 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Las Palmas a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Las Palmas win 46 %, draw 29 %, Burgos win 25 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 43 %, and both teams scoring at 48 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.95 for Las Palmas, 3.30 for the draw, 4.10 for Burgos.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 06:30 PM (LaLiga 2), at Estadio Gran Canaria.
The model leans towards Las Palmas at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.40 goals for Las Palmas and 1.00 for Burgos. Bookmakers say the same thing: 48 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Las Palmas took 10 points and Burgos 8 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Las Palmas, 2 draws, 0 wins for Burgos. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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