OFI CRETE
06:00 PM
Sep 20
Asteras Tripoli
OFI CRETE – Asteras Tripoli
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.67 – 1.00
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards OFI CRETE at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.67 goals for OFI CRETE and 1.00 for Asteras Tripoli. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 40 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.35, the predicted outcome carries +20.5 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, OFI CRETE took 12 points and Asteras Tripoli 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for OFI CRETE, 0 draws, 3 wins for Asteras Tripoli. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1OFI CRETE | 2.35 | 40 % | +20.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 30 % | -21.9 % |
| 2Asteras Tripoli |
Form and statistics
OFI CRETE
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Asteras Tripoli
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| OFI CRETE | Form and statistics | Asteras Tripoli |
|---|---|---|
| 1546 | Elo | 1421 |
| 1.90 | Goals scored / match | 1.10 |
| 0.90 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 10.7 | Shots / match | 12.8 |
| 70 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- OFI CRETE
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Asteras Tripoli
- OFI CRETE4-0Asteras Tripoli
- Asteras Tripoli3-0OFI CRETE
- OFI CRETE0-2Asteras Tripoli
- Asteras Tripoli2-1OFI CRETE
- OFI CRETE2-1Asteras Tripoli
Frequently asked questions
Who will win OFI CRETE – Asteras Tripoli?
Our model gives 1 · OFI CRETE a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: OFI CRETE win 51 %, draw 25 %, Asteras Tripoli win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for OFI CRETE – Asteras Tripoli?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
