Predictions are closed for this match.
Juventus
06:00 PM
Sep 20
Atalanta
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Juventus | 1.60 | 58 % | -5.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.90 | 24 % | -12.7 % |
| 2Atalanta | 5.25 | 18 % | -3.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Juventus
Atalanta
| Juventus | Form and statistics | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| 1743 | Elo | 1692 |
| 1.50 | Goals scored / match | 1.00 |
| 0.90 | Goals conceded / match | 0.90 |
| 18.2 | Shots / match | 13.2 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 2 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Juventus a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Juventus win 59 %, draw 22 %, Atalanta win 18 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 52 %, and both teams scoring at 52 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.60 for Juventus, 3.90 for the draw, 5.25 for Atalanta.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 06:00 PM (Serie A), at Allianz Stadium.
The model leans towards Juventus at home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.79 goals for Juventus and 0.98 for Atalanta. Bookmakers say the same thing: 58 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Juventus took 10 points and Atalanta 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Juventus, 2 draws, 2 wins for Atalanta. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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