Predictions are closed for this match.
Schalke 04
05:30 PM
Sep 20
SV Elversberg
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Schalke 04 | 1.86 | 50 % | -27.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 24 % | +4.2 % |
| 2SV Elversberg | 3.67 | 25 % | +25.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
| Schalke 04 | Form and statistics | SV Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| 1597 | Elo | 1628 |
| 1.90 | Goals scored / match | 2.70 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded / match | 1.70 |
| 14.9 | Shots / match | 12.5 |
| 70 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 8 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Schalke 04 a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Schalke 04 win 39 %, draw 27 %, SV Elversberg win 34 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 59 %, and both teams scoring at 61 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.86 for Schalke 04, 3.85 for the draw, 3.67 for SV Elversberg.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 05:30 PM (Bundesliga), at Veltins Arena.
The model leans towards Schalke 04 at home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.54 goals for Schalke 04 and 1.50 for SV Elversberg. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 50 %. Over their last five matches, Schalke 04 took 10 points and SV Elversberg 12 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Schalke 04, 0 draws, 1 win for SV Elversberg. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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