RB Salzburg
05:00 PM
Sep 20
SK Sturm Graz
RB Salzburg – SK Sturm Graz
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.65 – 1.02
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards RB Salzburg at home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.65 goals for RB Salzburg and 1.02 for SK Sturm Graz. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 64 %. Over their last five matches, RB Salzburg took 13 points and SK Sturm Graz 8 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for RB Salzburg, 3 draws, 2 wins for SK Sturm Graz. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1RB Salzburg | 1.48 | 64 % | -22.7 % |
| XDraw | 4.90 | 19 % | +28.9 % |
| 2SK Sturm Graz | 5.50 | 17 % | +17.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
RB Salzburg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
SK Sturm Graz
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| RB Salzburg | Form and statistics | SK Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| 1654 | Elo | 1634 |
| 2.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.00 |
| 0.70 | Goals conceded / match | 0.90 |
| 15.1 | Shots / match | 13.5 |
| 70 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- RB Salzburg
- 3 draws
- 2 wins
- SK Sturm Graz
- RB Salzburg1-1SK Sturm Graz
- SK Sturm Graz1-1RB Salzburg
- SK Sturm Graz1-1RB Salzburg
- RB Salzburg0-2SK Sturm Graz
- SK Sturm Graz4-2RB Salzburg
Frequently asked questions
Who will win RB Salzburg – SK Sturm Graz?
Our model gives 1 · RB Salzburg a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: RB Salzburg win 52 %, draw 26 %, SK Sturm Graz win 21 %.
What is the most likely score for RB Salzburg – SK Sturm Graz?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
