Predictions are closed for this match.
Mjällby AIF
04:30 PM
Sep 20
GAIS
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mjällby AIF | 2.80 | 34 % | -10.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -4.0 % |
| 2GAIS | 2.45 | 39 % | -1.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Mjällby AIF
GAIS
| Mjällby AIF | Form and statistics | GAIS |
|---|---|---|
| 1537 | Elo | 1555 |
| 0.70 | Goals scored / match | 0.80 |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 8.7 | Shots / match | 14.7 |
| 10 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · GAIS a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mjällby AIF win 32 %, draw 28 %, GAIS win 40 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 50 %, and both teams scoring at 55 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.80 for Mjällby AIF, 3.45 for the draw, 2.45 for GAIS.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 04:30 PM (Allsvenskan), at Strandvallen.
The model leans towards GAIS away from home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.26 goals for Mjällby AIF and 1.41 for GAIS. Bookmakers say the same thing: 39 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Mjällby AIF took 2 points and GAIS 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Mjällby AIF, 3 draws, 1 win for GAIS. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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