Vitória de Guimaraes
1-1
Moreirense
Vitória de Guimaraes – Moreirense
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 53 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.60 – 0.91
The short version
Final score: Vitória de Guimaraes 1-1 Moreirense. The model predicted a win for Vitória de Guimaraes (53 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.60 goals for Vitória de Guimaraes and 0.91 for Moreirense. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 63 %. Over their last five matches, Vitória de Guimaraes took 4 points and Moreirense 6 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Vitória de Guimaraes, 1 draw, 1 win for Moreirense. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vitória de Guimaraes | 1.49 | 63 % | -21.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 23 % | +11.2 % |
| 2Moreirense | 6.75 | 14 % | +32.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Vitória de Guimaraes
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Moreirense
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Vitória de Guimaraes
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Moreirense
- Vitória de Guimaraes1-0Moreirense
- Moreirense2-0Vitória de Guimaraes
- Moreirense2-2Vitória de Guimaraes
- Vitória de Guimaraes1-0Moreirense
- Vitória de Guimaraes1-0Moreirense
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Vitória de Guimaraes – Moreirense?
Final score: Vitória de Guimaraes 1-1 Moreirense. The model predicted a win for Vitória de Guimaraes (53 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Vitória de Guimaraes – Moreirense?
Our model gives 1 · Vitória de Guimaraes a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Vitória de Guimaraes win 53 %, draw 28 %, Moreirense win 20 %.