Atlético Madrid
04:15 PM
Sep 20
Real Madrid
Atlético Madrid – Real Madrid
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.44 – 1.52
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Real Madrid away from home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.44 goals for Atlético Madrid and 1.52 for Real Madrid. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 48 %. Over their last five matches, Atlético Madrid took 9 points and Real Madrid 12 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Atlético Madrid, 1 draw, 2 wins for Real Madrid. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlético Madrid | 3.55 | 27 % | +23.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | -1.1 % |
| 2Real Madrid | 2.00 | 48 % | -21.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Atlético Madrid
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Real Madrid
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Atlético Madrid | Form and statistics | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 1778 | Elo | 1885 |
| 1.90 | Goals scored / match | 2.60 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded / match | 0.90 |
| 14.1 | Shots / match | 18.4 |
| 60 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Atlético Madrid
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Real Madrid
- Real Madrid3-2Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid5-2Real Madrid
- Atlético Madrid1-0Real Madrid
- Real Madrid2-1Atlético Madrid
- Real Madrid1-1Atlético Madrid
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlético Madrid – Real Madrid?
Our model gives 2 · Real Madrid a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlético Madrid win 35 %, draw 26 %, Real Madrid win 39 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlético Madrid – Real Madrid?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
