Ceuta
1-1
Real Valladolid
Ceuta – Real Valladolid
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.28 – 1.10
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Ceuta 1-1 Real Valladolid. The model predicted a win for Ceuta (40 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.28 goals for Ceuta and 1.10 for Real Valladolid. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 30 %. Over their last five matches, Ceuta took no points and Real Valladolid 4 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Ceuta, 0 draws, 2 wins for Real Valladolid. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ceuta | 3.15 | 30 % | +24.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 30 % | -2.8 % |
| 2Real Valladolid | 2.35 | 40 % | -29.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Ceuta
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Real Valladolid
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Ceuta
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Real Valladolid
- Ceuta0-3Real Valladolid
- Real Valladolid3-0Ceuta
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Ceuta – Real Valladolid?
Final score: Ceuta 1-1 Real Valladolid. The model predicted a win for Ceuta (40 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Ceuta – Real Valladolid?
Our model gives 1 · Ceuta a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ceuta win 40 %, draw 30 %, Real Valladolid win 30 %.