Predictions are closed for this match.
Sintrense
04:00 PM
Sep 20
AVS
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sintrense | 4.50 | 20 % | +87.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 27 % | -24.9 % |
| 2AVS | 1.76 | 52 % | -36.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Sintrense
AVS
| Sintrense | Form and statistics | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| 1491 | Elo | 1439 |
| 1.20 | Goals scored / match | 0.90 |
| 2.80 | Goals conceded / match | 1.00 |
| 0.0 | Shots / match | 12.0 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 20 | Rest days | 30 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Sintrense a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sintrense win 42 %, draw 22 %, AVS win 36 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 50 %, and both teams scoring at 55 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 4.50 for Sintrense, 3.40 for the draw, 1.76 for AVS.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (Taça de Portugal), at Estádio do Sport União Sintrense.
The model leans towards Sintrense at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.34 goals for Sintrense and 1.35 for AVS. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 20 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 4.50, the predicted outcome carries +87.1 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Sintrense took 6 points and AVS 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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