Bayer Leverkusen
03:30 PM
Sep 20
RB Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen – RB Leipzig
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.10 – 1.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67 %
- Both teams to score
- 66 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bayer Leverkusen at home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.10 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.37 for RB Leipzig. Bookmakers say the same thing: 51 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Bayer Leverkusen took 10 points and RB Leipzig 9 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Bayer Leverkusen, 1 draw, 1 win for RB Leipzig. Over 2.5 goals: 67 %. Both teams to score: 66 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayer Leverkusen | 1.82 | 51 % | +0.1 % |
| XDraw | 4.30 | 22 % | -11.1 % |
| 2RB Leipzig | 3.45 | 27 % | -15.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Bayer Leverkusen
- Last 5 matches
- At home
RB Leipzig
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Bayer Leverkusen | Form and statistics | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| 1758 | Elo | 1694 |
| 2.20 | Goals scored / match | 2.60 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 17.5 | Shots / match | 18.5 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Bayer Leverkusen
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- RB Leipzig
- Bayer Leverkusen4-1RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig1-3Bayer Leverkusen
- RB Leipzig2-2Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen2-3RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig2-3Bayer Leverkusen
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen – RB Leipzig?
Our model gives 1 · Bayer Leverkusen a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Bayer Leverkusen win 55 %, draw 21 %, RB Leipzig win 25 %.
What is the most likely score for Bayer Leverkusen – RB Leipzig?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
