Predictions are closed for this match.
Arezzo
03:00 PM
Sep 20
Sudtirol
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arezzo | 2.27 | 42 % | -7.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.08 | 31 % | -2.0 % |
| 2Sudtirol | 3.40 | 28 % | -6.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Arezzo
Sudtirol
| Arezzo | Form and statistics | Sudtirol |
|---|---|---|
| 1492 | Elo | 1430 |
| 1.17 | Goals scored / match | 0.80 |
| 1.67 | Goals conceded / match | 0.70 |
| 13.6 | Shots / match | 11.9 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 8 | Rest days | 4 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Arezzo a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Arezzo win 41 %, draw 32 %, Sudtirol win 27 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 45 %, and both teams scoring at 50 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.27 for Arezzo, 3.08 for the draw, 3.40 for Sudtirol.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (Serie B), at Stadio Città di Arezzo.
The model leans towards Arezzo at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.44 goals for Arezzo and 1.05 for Sudtirol. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Arezzo took 6 points and Sudtirol 8 points. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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