Manchester City
5-3
Sunderland
Manchester City – Sunderland
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 77 %
- Most likely score
- 2-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.41 – 0.74
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Manchester City 5-3 Sunderland. The model predicted a win for Manchester City (77 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.41 goals for Manchester City and 0.74 for Sunderland. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 70 %. Over their last five matches, Manchester City took 15 points and Sunderland 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Manchester City, 1 draw, 0 wins for Sunderland. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manchester City | 1.36 | 70 % | +4.8 % |
| XDraw | 5.13 | 18 % | -25.2 % |
| 2Sunderland | 8.00 | 12 % | -34.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Manchester City
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sunderland
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Manchester City
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Sunderland
- Sunderland0-0Manchester City
- Manchester City3-0Sunderland
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Manchester City – Sunderland?
Final score: Manchester City 5-3 Sunderland. The model predicted a win for Manchester City (77 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Manchester City – Sunderland?
Our model gives 1 · Manchester City a 77 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Manchester City win 77 %, draw 15 %, Sunderland win 8 %.