Leeds United
03:00 PM
Sep 20
Crystal Palace
Leeds United – Crystal Palace
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.76 – 1.08
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Leeds United at home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.76 goals for Leeds United and 1.08 for Crystal Palace. Bookmakers say the same thing: 58 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Leeds United took 8 points and Crystal Palace 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Leeds United, 1 draw, 0 wins for Crystal Palace. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leeds United | 1.65 | 58 % | -13.2 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 24 % | +3.8 % |
| 2Crystal Palace | 5.13 | 19 % | +9.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Leeds United
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Crystal Palace
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Leeds United | Form and statistics | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| 1712 | Elo | 1676 |
| 1.70 | Goals scored / match | 1.70 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 12.8 | Shots / match | 10.6 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Leeds United
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace0-0Leeds United
- Leeds United4-1Crystal Palace
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Leeds United – Crystal Palace?
Our model gives 1 · Leeds United a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Leeds United win 53 %, draw 26 %, Crystal Palace win 21 %.
What is the most likely score for Leeds United – Crystal Palace?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
