AFC Bournemouth
03:00 PM
Sep 20
Liverpool
AFC Bournemouth – Liverpool
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.52 – 1.38
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AFC Bournemouth at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.52 goals for AFC Bournemouth and 1.38 for Liverpool. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 30 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 3.13, the predicted outcome carries +25.1 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, AFC Bournemouth took 9 points and Liverpool 11 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for AFC Bournemouth, 0 draws, 4 wins for Liverpool. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AFC Bournemouth | 3.13 | 30 % | +25.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 26 % | -1.9 % |
| 2Liverpool |
Form and statistics
AFC Bournemouth
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Liverpool
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| AFC Bournemouth | Form and statistics | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 1724 | Elo | 1775 |
| 1.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.70 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 15.9 | Shots / match | 15.1 |
| 40 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- AFC Bournemouth
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- Liverpool
- AFC Bournemouth3-2Liverpool
- Liverpool4-2AFC Bournemouth
- AFC Bournemouth0-2Liverpool
- Liverpool3-0AFC Bournemouth
- AFC Bournemouth0-4Liverpool
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AFC Bournemouth – Liverpool?
Our model gives 1 · AFC Bournemouth a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AFC Bournemouth win 40 %, draw 27 %, Liverpool win 33 %.
What is the most likely score for AFC Bournemouth – Liverpool?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
