Predictions are closed for this match.
TSV Hartberg
02:30 PM
Sep 20
LASK Linz
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1TSV Hartberg | 7.75 | 12 % | -7.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.88 | 19 % | -10.0 % |
| 2LASK Linz | 1.35 | 69 % | -6.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
TSV Hartberg
LASK Linz
| TSV Hartberg | Form and statistics | LASK Linz |
|---|---|---|
| 1497 | Elo | 1674 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 2.40 |
| 2.10 | Goals conceded / match | 0.90 |
| 8.2 | Shots / match | 18.8 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 70 % |
| 7 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · LASK Linz a 70 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: TSV Hartberg win 12 %, draw 18 %, LASK Linz win 70 %.
The most likely score is 0-2, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 60 %, and both teams scoring at 50 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 7.75 for TSV Hartberg, 4.88 for the draw, 1.35 for LASK Linz.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:30 PM (Austrian Bundesliga), at Profertil Arena.
The model leans towards LASK Linz away from home (70 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.81 goals for TSV Hartberg and 2.29 for LASK Linz. Bookmakers say the same thing: 69 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, TSV Hartberg took 7 points and LASK Linz 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for TSV Hartberg, 3 draws, 2 wins for LASK Linz. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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