Predictions are closed for this match.
FC Twente
02:30 PM
Sep 20
PSV Eindhoven
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Twente | 2.89 | 33 % | -18.1 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 24 % | -9.4 % |
| 2PSV Eindhoven | 2.17 | 44 % | +6.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
FC Twente
PSV Eindhoven
| FC Twente | Form and statistics | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| 1684 | Elo | 1829 |
| 2.50 | Goals scored / match | 3.40 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.20 |
| 22.4 | Shots / match | 19.1 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 70 % |
| 7 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · PSV Eindhoven a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Twente win 28 %, draw 23 %, PSV Eindhoven win 49 %.
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 71 %, and both teams scoring at 70 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.89 for FC Twente, 4.00 for the draw, 2.17 for PSV Eindhoven.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:30 PM (Eredivisie), at De Grolsch Veste.
The model leans towards PSV Eindhoven away from home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.60 goals for FC Twente and 2.05 for PSV Eindhoven. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 44 %. Over their last five matches, FC Twente took 13 points and PSV Eindhoven 13 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for FC Twente, 0 draws, 5 wins for PSV Eindhoven. Over 2.5 goals: 71 %. Both teams to score: 70 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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